Housing crisis: Fears for 100,000 jobs as sector s

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johnt

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Post by johnt » Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:44 am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... use410.xml

Their warning came as Barratt Developments confirmed it was cutting more than a thousand workers – the fifth house builder this week to announce major job losses as a result of the dramatic slump in demand for new houses.

The credit crisis, which has meant banks and building societies have stopped offering cheap mortgages, has created an unprecedented slump in demand, according to the industry.

Roger Humber, policy advisor at the House Builders Association, said: "It is uniquely bad. There is nothing to compared it to since the end of the Second World War.

"There is a complete collapse of credit and the number of new homes changing hands has fallen by 70 or 75 per cent compared with a year ago."

Mark Clare, the chief executive of Barratt, said: "We don't envisage any recovery in the new homes market until mortgage availability is restored.
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"Housing production is now expected to reach its lowest levels for more than 50 years."

So far this week, 5,000 jobs have been axed, but this is only what has been confirmed from the five major developers, and only includes workers employed directly by the developers – not the army of sub-contractors, such as roofers, brick-layers, plasterers, plumbers and electricians.

Suzannah Nichol, the chief executive of the National Specialist Contractors Federation, which represents about 700,000 sub-contractors said: "We've been feeling the pinch since the start of this year.

"And what's made it worse for us is that the house builders have turned around and demanded we cut our prices by 5 or even 10 per cent. Some have even insisted on two price cuts this year."

Mr Humber predicts that up to 100,000 jobs could eventually be lost during the crisis. He pointed out that during the last recession Cambridge Econometrics estimated that for each house built, one job was sustained. Last year 190,000 new homes were completed, but this is expected to fall to 100,000 this year.

The house builders that have announced job losses have cut between 30 per cent and 40 per cent of their work force. If this percentage was applied to the entire house building industry, which employs 300,000, an estimated 100,000 jobs could be lost.

The collapse in the house building sector will mean that Gordon Brown's target of building 240,000 new homes every year until 2020 will be missed, leading to a significant shortfall in the target of three million new homes. Housing Minister Caroline Flint admitted that building three million new houses by 2020 was going to be a "challenge".

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4's Today programme the minister said the Government still wanted to see more homes being built and the three million figure is a "valid target".

The crisis has, however, created a possible silver lining for home buyers looking for a cheap home. House builders have started to offer significant incentives in an attempt to sell the unsold properties on their books. Bovis, for instance, is offering first-time buyers the opportunity to pay for 75 per cent of the property now and the remainder in 10 years' time.

Others are offering to pay first-time buyers mortgage for the first year. However, mortgage experts pointed out that the lack of availability of home loans would mean very few people would be able to take up the offer.

Melanie Bien, director mortgage broker Savills Private Finance, pointed out that many lenders would only give mortgages on new-build properties if buyers had at least 25 per cent deposit; some insist on 40 per cent deposit.

The grim news from the house building sector came as Halifax, the country's largest lender, said that average house prices were now £19,000 lower than at their peak last summer.

Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup, said: "It is fair to say we are now in the worst housing slide for over 50 years."
 
 

kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:47 am
My stepson works in the housing industry as an engineer. All of the people at his office are now on 30 days notice, and should find out in the next week or so which of them is for the push immediately.

We've told him to get out of this country - there's not a lot here for young people at the moment, and it isn't going to get better anytime soon.
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Emily

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Post by Emily » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:03 pm
In Leeds 'Lumerie' a classy glass building residentiaI block have stopped work altogether and 33,000 Estate agents to be made redundant by Xmas....
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kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:08 pm
My stepsons housing firm was just about to start work on a new housing development close to where I live. That's not going to happen at the moment. The land is just sitting there now.
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joh71262

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Post by joh71262 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:27 pm
kallis3 wrote:

My stepson works in the housing industry as an engineer. All of the people at his office are now on 30 days notice, and should find out in the next week or so which of them is for the push immediately.

We've told him to get out of this country - there's not a lot here for young people at the moment, and it isn't going to get better anytime soon.
Kallis I don't think there's a lot in the country for many of us. Personally I think that those of us that are in IVA's are probably a damn sight better off than a lot of other people as we already know what it's like to tighten the budgets and have no intention of moving or selling up unless we have to. I reckon it will also mean that for those of us nearing the 4th year clause, it will work out even better as we won't have to extend our mortgages due to either falling prices or banks unwilling to lend more money.
There's light at the end of the tunnel - it's just that sometimes the tunnel seems so long.

IVA Complete June 2009
 
 

kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:38 pm
joh, I wish I was young enough to get out, I'd be on the next plane!

It will certainly do us a favour with the equity, although in four years time (or thereabouts) when mine is due, I will have paid off the equivalent monthly payments on the mortgage, and also on the secured loan, so unless my house is worth nothing by then, I think I will be trying to remortgage. We do already have some equity in it.
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joh71262

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Post by joh71262 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:08 pm
I am wondering where I will be.

I bought the place for £45k 16 years ago, remortgaged to get out of debt to £83k when the place was worth £100k a few years back, and still got myself back into trouble. Prices were looking at about £145k a while ago, but I daren't look now.

And it's only a 1 bed flat ! Easy access to the M1 and M25 so location is good. Hopefully by the time the IVA is done, I may be able to afford a house !

Onwards and upwards. Trying to stay positive about it all - but when the 2.5% pay rise will just about cover the increase in groceries, it's a pain.

Luckily I have a fully expensed company car - even though I pay tax on it, for once, I fell in the poop and came up smelling of roses !!

[:D]
There's light at the end of the tunnel - it's just that sometimes the tunnel seems so long.

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kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:12 pm
Sounds as though you might still have some equity left in it. I would think property situated like yours would probably still sell.

On the small estate I live on, there are 5 houses up for sale, some of which have been up for months and nothing at all is selling.
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joh71262

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Post by joh71262 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:28 pm
Crikey that's dire.

I don't know whether it would sell or not. It would be at the bottom of a chain unless I was moving to rented, so the chances of a collapse would be a bit iffy I reckon.

Still, I'm not intending to move anywhere (unless I win the lottery, but as I don't do it, there's no chance of that !) so it doesn't matter.

Mum is even getting in with the game now. They came into some money and they wanted to pay for me to have a holiday but when I said that the spends, clothes and insurance would be more than I could afford, they kept hold of the money (knowing that a windfall would have to be passed on !).

My washing machine died yesterday so I am getting a new one Friday. The other one was nearly 11 but hopefully this one will also be more efficient.
There's light at the end of the tunnel - it's just that sometimes the tunnel seems so long.

IVA Complete June 2009
 
 

kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:31 pm
I'm praying all my electrical stuff lasts out for the next few years. If the washing machine packs up it's off to the local stream with a few heavy stones for me!
Sharing from experiences of dealing with debt
The greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively.
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joh71262

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Post by joh71262 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:55 pm
LOL Kallis I have a vision of you trudging along to a river with a bundle of stones in a piece of cloth strapped to your back !

By the way, make sure the washing powder is fish friendly please ! [:o)]
There's light at the end of the tunnel - it's just that sometimes the tunnel seems so long.

IVA Complete June 2009
 
 

kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:07 pm
Wouldn't use anything else[:)][:)]
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Julie

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Post by Julie » Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:24 pm
Jan - I've had a flyer marketing a laundrette near me, a special offer on for washing a black bag of clothes £7.....if electric etc keeps going up I'll be taking my washing there! Just wish I could afford to pay someone to do the ironing too.
 
 

kallis3

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Post by kallis3 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:28 pm
Me too, I hate ironing and try to get it out of the way on a Saturday so I don't have to think about it again for a whole week![:D]
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The greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively.
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michael.t47

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Post by michael.t47 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:48 pm
we just cancelled ironing lady
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